Date

20 - 21 April 2010 (Two full days)

Location

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Foothills Lab Campus
Seminar Room 1001
3450 Mitchell Lane
Boulder, Colorado 80301

Co-hosted by the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), NOAA THORPEX, and the NCAR Tropical Cyclone Modeling Testbed (TCMT)

Purpose

This workshop will bring together forecasters and ensemble system developers to: (1) review progress in ensemble prediction related to tropical cyclones (TCs) and the scientific issues in ensemble system development; (2a) discuss new methods for displaying ensemble information that will aid forecasters; and (2b) discuss what new uncertainty-based end products are a priority to develop. This workshop will produce recommendations for a 5-year agenda for related HFIP research and development in this area.

Agenda and Presentations

Day 1, Tuesday
Co-Chairs, Zoltan Toth and Tom Hamill

0800 - 0830    Registration, Continental breakfast
0830 - 0835    Welcoming remarks, goals
                         (Gall, NCAR & NWS HQ)
0835 - 0845    Logistics (internet, lunch, etc)
                         (Brown, NCAR/RAL) and
                         expectations for Day 1 of the workshop
                         (Toth, ESRL/GSD)

Session 1: Ensemble prediction and predictability

0845 - 0915    Review of chaos theory fundamentals,
                         ensemble prediction concepts, methods of
                         initializing ensembles (Hamill, NOAA/ESRL)
0915 - 0940    Review of predictability & model error issues
                         related to TCs (Davis, NCAR/MMM)
0940 - 1010    Review of methods for dealing with model
                         error in ensemble predictions
                         (Reynolds, NRL/Monterey )
1010 - 1040    Discussion

1040 - 1100    Coffee Break

Session 2: Ensemble prediction

1100 - 1120    Statistical post-processing and downscaling
                         (Hamill/Toth, NOAA/ESRL)
1120 - 1135    Tropical cyclone ensemble guidance from EMC
                         (Zhu, NCEP/EMC)
1135 - 1150    Tropical cyclone ensemble guidance from
                         US Navy (Reynolds, NRL/Monterey)
1150 - 1215    Discussion

1215 - 1325    Lunch

Session 3: Relationships with other plans and initiatives

1325 - 1340    Review of implementation plan for AMS
                         Ad-Hoc Committee on Uncertainty
                         in Forecasts (Hamill, NOAA/ESRL)
1340 - 1355    Review of US National Mesoscale Probabilistic
                         Prediction White Paper (Eckel, NOAA/OST)
1355 - 1410    Review of NUOPC Plans (Toepfer, NWS/OST)
1410 - 1425    Review of HFIP Ensemble and Data
                         Assimilation Team plans
                         (Reynolds, NRL/Monterey, and Toth,
                         ESRL/GSD)
1425 - 1440    Review of HFIP Applications Development and
                         Diagnostics team plans (DeMaria, NESDIS
                          Rappaport, NHC)

1440 - 1500    Coffee Break

Session 4: Current use of products & what probabilistic information may be needed or useful

1500 - 1525    Overview of current tropical cyclone products
                         generated by NWS (Kimberlain, NHC)
1525 - 1545    Overview of current tropical cyclone forecast
                         guidance available to NWS, NHC and WFOs
                         (Pasch, NHC)
1545 - 1600    Application of Global Ensemble Prediction
                         Systems to Deterministic TC forecasting
                         (Fiorino, ESRL/GSD)
1600 - 1620    End users and their needs and requirements
                          (Jennings, FEMA)
1620 - 1640    The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on
                         Decision Making (Joslyn, U Washington)
1640 - 1710    Discussion, review of the day's action items
                         and decisions
1710               Adjourn for the day

1730               Reception at Foothills Lab Atrium

Day 2, Wednesday
Co-Chairs, Michael Brennan and Mark DeMaria

Session 5: Ensemble-based applications for NHC: current and requested products

0800 - 0830    Continental breakfast
0830 - 0840    Introductions and expectations for Day 2
                         (DeMaria, NESDIS and Brennan, NHC)
0840 - 0905    Current NHC ensemble/probability based
                         forecaster tools (Brennan and DeMaria)
0905 - 0925    NHC/CPHC preliminary ideas for new
                         ensemble applications for forecasters
                         (Blake, NHC)
0925 - 0940    Discussion

0940 - 1000    Coffee break

Session 6: Ensemble-based applications in use at other forecast centers

1000 - 1030    Current ECMWF ensemble-based tools for
                         forecasters (Richardson, ECMWF)
1030 - 1100    Current JMA ensemble-based tools for
                         tropical cyclone forecasters
                         (Yonehara, JMA)
1100 - 1145    Discussion, charge to the working groups
                         (maybe two subgroups assigned to come
                         up with about 3 ideas each for new
                         ensemble-based products, and two
                         subgroups assigned to address key Day 1
                         issues)

1145 - 1300    Lunch break (on your own)

Session 7: Working Groups

1300 - 1445    Working group sessions

1445 - 1515    Coffee break

Session 8: Working Group presentations

                      Ensemble "Mechanics" Group
                      Group 3: End-User Products

1515 - 1615   Working groups summarize their ideas
                         (15 min each)

Session 9: Plenary Discussion

1615-1715    Open Discussion

1715-1730    Summary and Next Steps